Hardy political perennials in Thailand and Bangladesh by the Economist
Elections in Bangladesh show a people hungry for democracy
A peaceful revolution in Bangladesh
Bangladesh Elects Secular Alliance, Dealing Blow to Fundamentalism
Thursday, January 8, 2009
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Key dates in Hasina's career
In exactly two hours time, Hasina will take oath as Bangladesh's new prime minister, for the second time. Courtesy of AFP, Here are key dates in her career:
- December 16, 1971: Awami League party leader and Sheikh Hasina's father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman -- detained by Pakistan during the country's independence war -- is named first president while still in jail, and after his release in early 1972 also takes up post of prime minister.
- August 15, 1975: Sheikh Mujib and more than a dozen others, including his wife, are shot dead in the family home as part of a military coup. His two daughters, Sheikh Hasina and Sheikh Rehana, are abroad at the time and are offered asylum in India and Britain.
- May 17, 1981: Sheikh Hasina returns to Bangladesh as Awami League party leader.
- December 6, 1990: Arch rivals Skeikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia, leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), join forces to oust military dictator Hussain Muhammad Ershad after a people's revolt.
- February 27, 1991: Democracy is restored and Zia elected Bangladesh's first female prime minister, narrowly beating Sheikh Hasina.
- June 12, 1996: Sheikh Hasina elected prime minister for a five-year term after a narrow victory over Zia.
- October 1, 2001: Zia again elected prime minister with landslide margin amid allegations by Sheikh Hasina of vote rigging.
- January 11, 2007: President Iajuddin Ahmed declares a state of emergency, bans political activity and cancels elections after months of political violence. An interim government, backed by the army, takes over soon after.
- March 15: Sheikh Hasina leaves for the US, denying she has been exiled.
- April 11: Government puts Zia under house arrest. Sheikh Hasina charged with the murder of four people during the violence in the lead-up to the cancelled elections.
- May 7: Sheikh Hasina returns home, welcomed by thousands.
- July 16: Sheikh Hasina is arrested on corruption and murder charges.
- September 3: Zia is arrested on graft charges.
- January 30, 2008: Sheikh Hasina's corruption trial begins, but is later adjourned.
- June 11: Sheikh Hasina is freed, though charges against her remain, in a deal to ensure her party takes part in elections.
- September 11: Zia is released from jail with charges still in place.
- December 29: Elections held, in which Sheikh Hasina's Awami League wins a landslide victory with 230 out of a possible 300 seats, while Zia's BNP gets only 29.
- January 5: One extortion charge against Sheikh Hasina dropped. Ten others remain in place, including a murder charge.
- December 16, 1971: Awami League party leader and Sheikh Hasina's father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman -- detained by Pakistan during the country's independence war -- is named first president while still in jail, and after his release in early 1972 also takes up post of prime minister.
- August 15, 1975: Sheikh Mujib and more than a dozen others, including his wife, are shot dead in the family home as part of a military coup. His two daughters, Sheikh Hasina and Sheikh Rehana, are abroad at the time and are offered asylum in India and Britain.
- May 17, 1981: Sheikh Hasina returns to Bangladesh as Awami League party leader.
- December 6, 1990: Arch rivals Skeikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia, leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), join forces to oust military dictator Hussain Muhammad Ershad after a people's revolt.
- February 27, 1991: Democracy is restored and Zia elected Bangladesh's first female prime minister, narrowly beating Sheikh Hasina.
- June 12, 1996: Sheikh Hasina elected prime minister for a five-year term after a narrow victory over Zia.
- October 1, 2001: Zia again elected prime minister with landslide margin amid allegations by Sheikh Hasina of vote rigging.
- January 11, 2007: President Iajuddin Ahmed declares a state of emergency, bans political activity and cancels elections after months of political violence. An interim government, backed by the army, takes over soon after.
- March 15: Sheikh Hasina leaves for the US, denying she has been exiled.
- April 11: Government puts Zia under house arrest. Sheikh Hasina charged with the murder of four people during the violence in the lead-up to the cancelled elections.
- May 7: Sheikh Hasina returns home, welcomed by thousands.
- July 16: Sheikh Hasina is arrested on corruption and murder charges.
- September 3: Zia is arrested on graft charges.
- January 30, 2008: Sheikh Hasina's corruption trial begins, but is later adjourned.
- June 11: Sheikh Hasina is freed, though charges against her remain, in a deal to ensure her party takes part in elections.
- September 11: Zia is released from jail with charges still in place.
- December 29: Elections held, in which Sheikh Hasina's Awami League wins a landslide victory with 230 out of a possible 300 seats, while Zia's BNP gets only 29.
- January 5: One extortion charge against Sheikh Hasina dropped. Ten others remain in place, including a murder charge.
Bangladesh Election: Major Milestone for Democracy in South Asia
Read an analysis by Lisa Curtis, Senior Research Fellow for South Asia in the Asian Studies Center and Nicholas Hamisevicz, a Research Assistant in the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation.
Bangladesh Election: Major Milestone for Democracy in South Asia
Bangladeshis went to the polls on December 29 in record numbers and elected the secular Awami League party headed by former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed. Several international election observers declared the polls fair and peaceful, despite allegations of rigging by the Bangladeshi National Party (BNP), which ruled the country from 2001 to 2006.
After two years of military-backed emergency rule, the overwhelming vote in favor of a secular political party is a strong indicator that the world's fourth-largest Muslim country will continue forging a path toward democratic development, albeit in the face of tremendous challenges from poverty, natural disaster, Islamist extremism, and pervasive corruption. The U.S. should encourage the new government to both build bridges to the opposition and take a strong stand against Islamist extremists who have sought to make political inroads through violent intimidation and exploitation of weak institutions, corruption, and lack of good governance.
Democracy Delayed
The Awami League won over two-thirds of the 300 parliamentary seats, returning Sheikh Hasina as Prime Minister, a position she previously held from 1996 to 2001. For its part, the BNP won a mere 29 seats, prompting its leader to allege that the vote was rigged. The BNP apparently suffered from government bans on its preferred election candidates and recent divisions within the party. An Islamist party allied with the BNP, the Jamaat-e-Islami, also suffered a major setback, winning only two seats, compared to the 17 it grabbed in the last election.
The U.S.-based International Republican Institute (IRI), which deployed 65 election observers before and during the elections, determined in its preliminary assessment that the elections constituted a "major step forward in demonstrating the country's commitment to strengthening democracy" and "yielded a result that accurately reflects the will of Bangladeshi voters."[1]IRI also praised the interim government for creating a revised voter list, complete with photo identifications and containing 80 million new names.
In 2006, escalating political violence interrupted Bangladesh's democratic process, forcing a postponement of elections originally scheduled for January 2007. While most Bangladeshis and international observers initially supported the decision to call off the January 2007 election in order to prevent a potential bloodbath, many worried that prolonged military intervention in the political process would permanently undermine the country's democratic institutions. The interim government's severe restrictions on political activities and efforts to target the country's top politicians--Sheikh Hasina and Khaled Zia--as part of its anti-corruption drive also lacked public support. The interim government eventually dropped the corruption charges against Hasina and Zia and allowed them to lead their parties in last week's elections.
It is unclear whether the military will completely relinquish power now that elections have been held. One crucial indicator will be whether the current and retired military officers that were placed in key political positions over the last two years retain their government jobs when the Awami League takes over. There are signs that some military leaders believe the army should continue to have a direct role in governing the country.[2]
Tougher on Extremism
Sheikh Hasina is likely to take a tougher position toward Islamist extremists than Khalida Zia did during her tenure. Hasina survived an assassination attempt by Islamic extremists in August 2004 when a grenade was thrown at one of her political rallies, killing 20 of her supporters. The BNP had ruled from 2001 to 2006 in coalition with Islamist parties and had been reluctant to prosecute the perpetrators of political violence that had connections to radical Islamists. BNP coalition partner Jamaat-e-Islami apparently had ties to extremist leader Bangla Bhai, who promoted Islamic revolution in Bangladesh and was executed by the interim government in March 2007. In August 2005, widespread bombings conducted by the Jamaat-ul Mujahedeen Bangladesh (JMB)--whose stated goal is to impose strict Islamic rule--alarmed both domestic and international observers about the threat posed by local extremist groups. Just last week, Bangladeshi police arrested seven JMB-linked militants armed with grenades and explosives.
Indian leaders, increasingly concerned about Dhaka's response to Islamist extremists that also target India--especially its northeastern states that border Bangladesh--have welcomed Sheikh Hasina's victory. Harakat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI), a terrorist organization founded by Pakistan-based leader Fazlur Rehman with ties to al-Qaeda, apparently remains active in Bangladesh. India's new Home Minister P. Chidambaram recently told the Indian parliament that Bangladesh had a responsibility to control the HuJI.
Recommendations for U.S. Policy
The U.S. should support the newly elected democratic government but make clear that it is the new government's responsibility to prove it is capable of improving governance and rooting out corruption within its own ranks. Washington should work with other countries that played a key role in ensuring the elections were free and fair--such as the European Union countries, Australia, Japan, and India--to encourage the new government to build bridges to the political opposition and to avoid monopolizing state political and economic power. Washington must also encourage the new government to take a strong stand against Islamist extremists that have sought to exploit weak institutions, corruption, and lack of good governance to make political inroads and have used violence to intimidate opponents. Finally, Washington should encourage the BNP to honor the election results and play an appropriate role in Parliament in order to effectively address the nation's pressing challenges.
Successful polls are only the first step in achieving a functional democratic process. Unless the new government demonstrates a commitment to rooting out corruption, improving governance, and bolstering the economy, it risks creating an environment of instability, which would render it ineffective and provide an opening for new military intervention. With 40 percent of the Bangladeshi population still living on less than $1 a day and amid new economic uncertainties created by the global economic downturn, the new government cannot afford to waste any time in implementing measures to revitalize the economy and in continuing the business and economic reforms begun under the interim government. The new government in Bangladesh must use this opportunity not to settle political scores, but to solidify gains in the democratic process and improve governance in order to support the Bangladeshi people, revive the country's economy, and limit opportunities for radical Islamists.
.
Bangladesh Election: Major Milestone for Democracy in South Asia
Bangladeshis went to the polls on December 29 in record numbers and elected the secular Awami League party headed by former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed. Several international election observers declared the polls fair and peaceful, despite allegations of rigging by the Bangladeshi National Party (BNP), which ruled the country from 2001 to 2006.
After two years of military-backed emergency rule, the overwhelming vote in favor of a secular political party is a strong indicator that the world's fourth-largest Muslim country will continue forging a path toward democratic development, albeit in the face of tremendous challenges from poverty, natural disaster, Islamist extremism, and pervasive corruption. The U.S. should encourage the new government to both build bridges to the opposition and take a strong stand against Islamist extremists who have sought to make political inroads through violent intimidation and exploitation of weak institutions, corruption, and lack of good governance.
Democracy Delayed
The Awami League won over two-thirds of the 300 parliamentary seats, returning Sheikh Hasina as Prime Minister, a position she previously held from 1996 to 2001. For its part, the BNP won a mere 29 seats, prompting its leader to allege that the vote was rigged. The BNP apparently suffered from government bans on its preferred election candidates and recent divisions within the party. An Islamist party allied with the BNP, the Jamaat-e-Islami, also suffered a major setback, winning only two seats, compared to the 17 it grabbed in the last election.
The U.S.-based International Republican Institute (IRI), which deployed 65 election observers before and during the elections, determined in its preliminary assessment that the elections constituted a "major step forward in demonstrating the country's commitment to strengthening democracy" and "yielded a result that accurately reflects the will of Bangladeshi voters."[1]IRI also praised the interim government for creating a revised voter list, complete with photo identifications and containing 80 million new names.
In 2006, escalating political violence interrupted Bangladesh's democratic process, forcing a postponement of elections originally scheduled for January 2007. While most Bangladeshis and international observers initially supported the decision to call off the January 2007 election in order to prevent a potential bloodbath, many worried that prolonged military intervention in the political process would permanently undermine the country's democratic institutions. The interim government's severe restrictions on political activities and efforts to target the country's top politicians--Sheikh Hasina and Khaled Zia--as part of its anti-corruption drive also lacked public support. The interim government eventually dropped the corruption charges against Hasina and Zia and allowed them to lead their parties in last week's elections.
It is unclear whether the military will completely relinquish power now that elections have been held. One crucial indicator will be whether the current and retired military officers that were placed in key political positions over the last two years retain their government jobs when the Awami League takes over. There are signs that some military leaders believe the army should continue to have a direct role in governing the country.[2]
Tougher on Extremism
Sheikh Hasina is likely to take a tougher position toward Islamist extremists than Khalida Zia did during her tenure. Hasina survived an assassination attempt by Islamic extremists in August 2004 when a grenade was thrown at one of her political rallies, killing 20 of her supporters. The BNP had ruled from 2001 to 2006 in coalition with Islamist parties and had been reluctant to prosecute the perpetrators of political violence that had connections to radical Islamists. BNP coalition partner Jamaat-e-Islami apparently had ties to extremist leader Bangla Bhai, who promoted Islamic revolution in Bangladesh and was executed by the interim government in March 2007. In August 2005, widespread bombings conducted by the Jamaat-ul Mujahedeen Bangladesh (JMB)--whose stated goal is to impose strict Islamic rule--alarmed both domestic and international observers about the threat posed by local extremist groups. Just last week, Bangladeshi police arrested seven JMB-linked militants armed with grenades and explosives.
Indian leaders, increasingly concerned about Dhaka's response to Islamist extremists that also target India--especially its northeastern states that border Bangladesh--have welcomed Sheikh Hasina's victory. Harakat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI), a terrorist organization founded by Pakistan-based leader Fazlur Rehman with ties to al-Qaeda, apparently remains active in Bangladesh. India's new Home Minister P. Chidambaram recently told the Indian parliament that Bangladesh had a responsibility to control the HuJI.
Recommendations for U.S. Policy
The U.S. should support the newly elected democratic government but make clear that it is the new government's responsibility to prove it is capable of improving governance and rooting out corruption within its own ranks. Washington should work with other countries that played a key role in ensuring the elections were free and fair--such as the European Union countries, Australia, Japan, and India--to encourage the new government to build bridges to the political opposition and to avoid monopolizing state political and economic power. Washington must also encourage the new government to take a strong stand against Islamist extremists that have sought to exploit weak institutions, corruption, and lack of good governance to make political inroads and have used violence to intimidate opponents. Finally, Washington should encourage the BNP to honor the election results and play an appropriate role in Parliament in order to effectively address the nation's pressing challenges.
Successful polls are only the first step in achieving a functional democratic process. Unless the new government demonstrates a commitment to rooting out corruption, improving governance, and bolstering the economy, it risks creating an environment of instability, which would render it ineffective and provide an opening for new military intervention. With 40 percent of the Bangladeshi population still living on less than $1 a day and amid new economic uncertainties created by the global economic downturn, the new government cannot afford to waste any time in implementing measures to revitalize the economy and in continuing the business and economic reforms begun under the interim government. The new government in Bangladesh must use this opportunity not to settle political scores, but to solidify gains in the democratic process and improve governance in order to support the Bangladeshi people, revive the country's economy, and limit opportunities for radical Islamists.
.
Thursday, January 1, 2009
EIU's Observation on Bangladesh Elections
The Economist Intelligence Unit in its Viewswire has made the following observation on Bangladesh's elections:
Bangladesh could quickly revert to a state of extreme and destabilising political polarisation. If street violence erupts, the army could even decide to re-enter the political fray. The caretaker government has achieved something by overseeing credible elections—albeit after a long delay and the imposition of emergency rule. But there is a risk that it will not take long for this modest success to be undone.
Bangladesh could quickly revert to a state of extreme and destabilising political polarisation. If street violence erupts, the army could even decide to re-enter the political fray. The caretaker government has achieved something by overseeing credible elections—albeit after a long delay and the imposition of emergency rule. But there is a risk that it will not take long for this modest success to be undone.
Oxford Analytica on Bangladesh Elections
British think-tank the Oxford Analytica has offered the following observations on Bangladesh's elections:
National circumspection. Despite the peaceful election, clear AL victory and likely weakness of any challenge to the result, many Bangladeshis remain hesitant about the prospects of democracy:
Over-confidence. Many worry that the AL's mandate will result in over-confidence. The AL might impose its secular agenda too aggressively on what many see as a piously Muslim country, or pursue its enemies on corruption charges.
Bangladesh's first-past-the-post system means the scale of the AL's majority does not represent the extent of its support, adding to uncertainty; while it has a clear mandate, the BNP still polled only 30% of the popular vote.
Backlash. Many within the AL are concerned that defeat for the Islamist-leaning BNP and its allies will result in an attempt to destabilise secular politics through a campaign of violence. The army's central role in the administration during the last 23 months -- as well as international pressure -- has kept a lid on political violence, and the army's withdrawal now could see law and order deteriorate.
However, Sheikh Hasina has stressed the need for the AL to work with the defeated opposition. The AL has been elected on a moderate, realistic platform to develop the country and reduce poverty by 2021 that attracted popular support. While there are questions about Hasina and Khaleda Zia's continuing role in national politics and corruption remains an issue, most Bangladeshis see the high price of essential commodities as the priority, which the AL has promised to tackle.
CONCLUSION: The AL has scored a major victory in this week's return to democracy, leaving the BNP to decide how to respond. A consensual approach would lift Bangladesh's political prospects, but there is a risk that the AL might overreach itself on the perceived strength of its mandate.
National circumspection. Despite the peaceful election, clear AL victory and likely weakness of any challenge to the result, many Bangladeshis remain hesitant about the prospects of democracy:
Over-confidence. Many worry that the AL's mandate will result in over-confidence. The AL might impose its secular agenda too aggressively on what many see as a piously Muslim country, or pursue its enemies on corruption charges.
Bangladesh's first-past-the-post system means the scale of the AL's majority does not represent the extent of its support, adding to uncertainty; while it has a clear mandate, the BNP still polled only 30% of the popular vote.
Backlash. Many within the AL are concerned that defeat for the Islamist-leaning BNP and its allies will result in an attempt to destabilise secular politics through a campaign of violence. The army's central role in the administration during the last 23 months -- as well as international pressure -- has kept a lid on political violence, and the army's withdrawal now could see law and order deteriorate.
However, Sheikh Hasina has stressed the need for the AL to work with the defeated opposition. The AL has been elected on a moderate, realistic platform to develop the country and reduce poverty by 2021 that attracted popular support. While there are questions about Hasina and Khaleda Zia's continuing role in national politics and corruption remains an issue, most Bangladeshis see the high price of essential commodities as the priority, which the AL has promised to tackle.
CONCLUSION: The AL has scored a major victory in this week's return to democracy, leaving the BNP to decide how to respond. A consensual approach would lift Bangladesh's political prospects, but there is a risk that the AL might overreach itself on the perceived strength of its mandate.
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