Monday, September 7, 2009

Cox's Bazar: an evolving flash point?

Prothom Alo today reported the government has decided to set up an advance airbase for the Bangladesh air force in Cox's Bazar. Recommendation for setting up this base, along with a radar station and increasing hospital beds for air force personnel came from the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence in its meeting yesterday. A very simple and innocent news indeed, released by the Government's Press Information Department.

Or is it really a simple news? Rumours are mounting this decision came in the wake of intelligence information that Myanmar authorities are mobilising forces along Bangladesh border. It is also rumoured the recent official decision to pull out military personnel from their duties in Chittagong Hill Tracts is linked to increasing Bangladesh military forces in Cox's Bazar. It is also gathered order is being issued to quickly move army personnel there.

Are we going to see some armed conflict in Cox's Bazar in near future, involving Myanmar, China in one side and Bangladesh, US on the other? Ukhia is being labelled as the probable flash point in case any military conflict occurs. Don't dismiss this as a day-dream. Just monitor the developments.

Saturday, September 5, 2009

Swine flu vaccine realities

From:

Ten things you're not supposed to know about the swine flu vaccine(At least, not by anyone in authority...)
#1 - The vaccine production was "rushed" and the vaccine has never been tested on humans. Do you like to play guinea pig for Big Pharma? If so, line up for your swine flu vaccine this fall...
#2 - Swine flu vaccines contain dangerous adjuvants that cause an inflammatory response in the body. This is why they are suspected of causing autism and other neurological disorders.
#3 - The swine flu vaccine could actually increase your risk of death from swine flu by altering (or suppressing) your immune system response. There is zero evidence that even seasonal flu shots offer any meaningful protection for people who take the jabs. Vaccines are the snake oil of modern medicine.
#4 - Doctors still don't know why the 1976 swine flu vaccines paralyzed so many people. And that means they really have no clue whether the upcoming vaccine might cause the same devastating side effects. (And they're not testing it, either...)
#5 - Even if the swine flu vaccine kills you, the drug companies aren't responsible. The U.S. government has granted drug companies complete immunity against vaccine product liability. Thanks to that blanket immunity, drug companies have no incentive to make safe vaccines, because they only get paid based on quantity, not safety (zero liability).
#6 - No swine flu vaccine works as well as vitamin D to protect you from influenza. That's an inconvenient scientific fact that the U.S. government, the FDA and Big Pharma hope the people never realize.
#7 - Even if the swine flu vaccine actually works, mathematically speaking if everyone else around you gets the vaccine, you don't need one! (Because it can't spread through the population you hang with.) So even if you believe in the vaccine, all you need to do is encourage your friends to go get vaccinated...
#8 - Drug companies are making billions of dollars from the production of swine flu vaccines. That money comes out of your pocket -- even if you don't get the jab -- because it's all paid by the taxpayers.
#9 - When people start dying in larger numbers from the swine flu, rest assured that many of them will be the very people who got the swine flu vaccine. Doctors will explain this away with their typical Big Pharma logic: "The number saved is far greater than the number lost." Of course, the number "saved" is entirely fictional... imaginary... and exists only in their own warped heads.
#10 - The swine flu vaccine centers that will crop up all over the world in the coming months aren't completely useless: They will provide an easy way to identify large groups of really stupid people. (Too bad there isn't some sort of blue dye that we could tag 'em with for future reference...)

The lottery, they say, is a tax on people who can't do math. Similarly, flu vaccines are a tax on people who don't understand health.

Thursday, September 3, 2009

Professor Anu speaks from hospital and China hedging bets in Bay of Bengal

Chairman of the economics department of Jahangirnagar University and leading public intellectual and activist Professor Anu Muhammad gave an interview from his bed at the emergency ward of Square. See it here, and then read the story below to frame your mind.

The Chinese state oil giant that has a grip on Burma's biggest gas field is now venturing into neighboring Bangladesh—a move which may stifle long-running conflict over territorial waters in the Bay of Bengal.
The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) is reportedly about to sign an agreement with Bangladesh's government-controlled PetroBangla to search for oil and gas both on and off shore. The deal follows a visit by senior CNPC officials to Bangladesh earlier this year and Chinese government promises of a US $1 billion loan to the impoverished country.

Chinese workers seal the pipeline along the 1,272-kilometer transnational natural gas pipeline in Luoyang in central China’s Henan Province on Dec 11, 2008. China’s demand for oil and gas has expanded rapidly in recently years to fuel its double-digit economic growth, as the country imported nearly 200 million tons of oil in 2007, up more than 10 percent from 2006.

Burma and Bangladesh have clashed over competing territorial claims to sections of the sea believed to hold gas and oil.

Less than one year ago gunboats from the two countries' navies confronted one another around a drilling rig financed by industrial giant Daewoo. The South Korean company is the project leader and major investor in two sectors of the Shwe field just inside Burmese waters which has proven gas reserves of at least 200 billion cubic meters—all of which have recently been bought by CNPC.

Analysts take the view that this development is another example of China hedging its bets in the region on the future of Burma, even though many feel that the military junta-run country has fallen into Beijing's political pocket.

"Given recent events, it would be wise indeed for China to hedge its bets by exploring gas opportunities with Bangladesh," Australian economist and Burma expert Sean Turnell told The Irrawaddy this week. "That this is regardless of border sensibilities says much too about China's real regard to the feelings of its vassal [Burma]."

The offshore border line between Burma and Bangladesh remains undefined under international demarcations defined by the UN's Law of the Sea boundaries. Both countries have stalled making submissions to the UN.
Turnell, a professor at Sydney's Macquarie University and compiler of the Burma Economic Watch, has documented how China's economic and political grip over Burma has grown while Western countries have imposed sanctions against the regime.

Beijing has not only secured large volumes of Burma's gas reserves but is using the impoverished country as a conduit to ship Middle East oil by building a port in an isolated part of Burma's Bay of Bengal coast to transship supplies via a 1,200-kilometer pipeline into China's southwest Yunnan Province.

But Turnell believes even China remains wary of the stability of the Burmese junta.

"The incidents on the [northern] border amply demonstrate the SPDC's own immunity to international opinion when it comes to the crunch—even that of their principal creditor and supporter," he says. Another Chinese state company, Shanghai Electric Group, has just won a US $101 million contract in Bangladesh to build a 150 megawatt gas-fuelled power plant. Burma and Bangladesh have discussed cooperation on mutually beneficial electricity generation a number of times but talks remained inconclusive.

News of the Chinese moves in Bangladesh comes on the heels of other renewed activity in the Bay of Bengal by Burma's energy hungry neighbor.

PetroBangla has awarded offshore exploration contracts to two Western companies— U.S.-based ConocoPhilllips and Ireland's Tullow Oil.

The chairman of PetroBangla, Mohammad Muqtadir Ali, insists the companies will not be allowed to explore for oil and gas in disputed waters.

Previous Bangladeshi efforts to attract foreign bidders for offshore drilling licenses were unsuccessful, seemingly because of the territorial disputes with both Burma and India.

"Several factors have changed recently, including a more stable government in Bangladesh and Dhaka's resolve to submit formal sea territory claims to the United Nations," said Bangkok-based industry analyst-consultant Collin Reynolds.

"But the arrival of Chinese players on both sides of Burma's border is a bit of a conundrum, especially for the government of Burma."

China has also recently expressed interest in co-funding a major crude oil transshipping and processing terminal on the west coast of Malaysia. That terminal also offers Beijing an alternative route for its Middle East imports should relations with Burma sour or a change of regime occurs there.

Saturday, August 29, 2009

Protests against Bangla gas leases

From:
A pro-left civic group Saturday protested the Bangladeshi government's decision to award rights to two foreign oil firms to explore and exploit three natural gas blocks with export options in the Bay of Bengal.

'We will go for aggressive actions in future if the government does not scrap the deals with international companies hurting national interests,' said Sheikh Muhammad Shaheedullah, the coordinator of a group calling itself the National Committee to Protect Oil, Gas, Mineral Resources, Power and Port.

At a press conference at the office of the Communist Party of Bangladesh, the committee announced it would stage protests at the headquarters of state-run Petrobangla, which deals with management of the country's oil and gas exploration, on September 2.

The committee is demanding that the government revise the present Production Sharing Contacts with the international companies which would allow them to export 80 per cent of the gas in liquefied form.

Bangladesh's Awami League-led ruling alliance on August 24 approved awarding of two deep sea gas blocks to the US oil company ConocoPhillips and a shallow sea block to the Irish firm Tullow in Bangladesh's territorial waters.
The leftist groups have long opposed such gas export options by the companies under the Production Sharing Contract, which was drafted by the past military-backed government in 2008. The groups cite the country's own severe fuel crisis in opposing the exports.

Bangladesh, currently with a proven gas reserve of around 7 trillion cubic feet, is desperately looking for new reserves as the gas supply situation is expected to turn severe by 2011.

Industrial production and power generation have been seriously hit by the gas crisis, with the country now facing a shortage of around 250 million cubic feet per day. Production is currently running at 1,950 million cubic feet per day.

Friday, August 7, 2009

Bangladesh's energy security through Bay of Bengal

From: Wall Street Journal

Bangladesh is among a group of the world's poorest countries that may be sitting on top of untold oil and gas wealth, but can't exploit it due to ownership arguments. But with severe economic problems driving it forward, Dhaka is soon to go ahead and award a string of offshore exploration blocks, including to major international companies like Conocophillips (COP).

Overseas oil firms, including the U.S. company, placed the highest bids for some of the blocks, some of which overlap or are near areas claimed by poor neighbor Myanmar and far more wealthy India. "That issue is being discussed as we consider the approval of awards. But I don't think it will hold us up; we're in the final stages of discussion," Tawfiq-e-Elahi Chowdhury, energy advisor to the Prime Minister, told Dow Jones Newswires on Thursday.

The licensing round was held before current Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina came to power, so the new government has to study and approve the process, Energy Secretary Mohammad Mohsin told DJN. "A decision could come by the end of this month," he said.

While its first licensing round of offshore blocks may go through without a big fuss, top government officials say they want to pave the way for future auctions of acreage that'll be farther away from its coastline and that could potentially provoke the wrath of neighbors.
Bangladesh is getting ready to offer more offshore acreage, probably by early next year, said state-run Petrobangla's Chairman Muqtadir Ali.

Ownership rows over vast areas of Asia's offshore waters has prevented prospecting and production in many areas that are known to harbor, or may contain large reserves of hydrocarbons, and the Bay of Bengal is no exception.

These include a three-way Malaysia-Indonesia-Brunei dispute, another between Vietnam and Cambodia, one in the East China Sea which continues to sour relations between Beijing and Tokyo, and yet another over the Spratly Islands in the southern waters of the South China Sea between China, Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei. Elsewhere, Chevron Corp. (CVX) says it would like to explore more in the Gulf of Thailand, but a Thailand-Cambodia dispute has put offshore prospecting in the area on hold for more than 30 years.

Discoveries of huge amounts of gas in the Bay of Bengal in recent years have brought India, Bangladesh and Myanmar to the negotiating table sporadically, and have also prompted occasional jousting at sea by naval units. Myanmar has long exploited gas in its waters, piping it ashore and on to Thailand. It is now preparing to extract gas from another field in its waters and send it to south China via pipeline.

Recent Talks
Recently there has been a heightened pace of engagement between Bangladesh and Myanmar, where the maritime boundary issue is more critical as a larger area is in dispute than is the case with India. Officials from the two countries met last week. "We (Bangladesh and Myanmar) now agree that we must delimit the boundary as soon as possible so that we can both explore the region for oil and gas," said a senior Bangladeshi negotiator, who didn't wish to be named.

After years of status quo, "there's now an urgency on both sides...there's convergence of views. We may come to an agreement on at least some kind of technical framework, so that we can both go ahead with exploration. After that, the political process will take its own time."
A possible resolution could also include the neighbors jointly exploring some of the regions, Chowdhury said.

Some blocks that Bangladesh has offered are in waters where India has also auctioned acreage.
To the east, military-ruled Myanmar is a more tricky gateway to riches chased by local and regional energy companies and Western majors. "We have steered clear of Myanmar; in fact, not many companies want to be seen involved with that country," said Kevin Quinn, who manages Tullow Oil PLC's (TQW.DB) Tullow Asia business unit. "It's a question of reputation." Tullow is the likely winner in at least one offshore block in Bangladesh's auction.

Chevron has long been under fire from Western human rights activists over its stake in the Yadana gas field offshore Myanmar, from where gas is piped to Thailand.

Bangladesh plans to resolve sovereignty issues bilaterally, but any international arbitration will likely favor Dhaka, Bangladeshi officials claim, citing precedence elsewhere in the world.
Some of the companies involved seem to agree.

"We talked to our experts on international laws of the sea and we see any disputes being favored and settled in favor of Bangladesh in the future," Conoco's Exploration Vice President Larry Archibald told analysts in March, according to a transcript on the company's Web site.
Conoco is a frontrunner for eight deepwater blocks in the latest auctions.

For international oil firms, Bangladesh offers a cheap and convenient entry into some of the least-explored areas in the Bay of Bengal. "For a fairly modest bid," Conoco was the high bidder on virtually all of the deepwater blocks, Archibald said.

Bangladesh, which is heavily dependent on rapidly-depleting onshore gas reserves, urgently needs to exploit offshore gas to plug a growing energy deficit. Its rising gas demand and the shortfall has been made worse by more than six years of virtually no exploration in new regions, said Chowdhury.

It now gets nearly all its gas from onshore fields, but awarding new onshore acreage has been blocked for years because of a long-running court injunction. "We're very short of gas. We will now appeal and seriously try to get the injunction lifted so that we can offer onshore blocks as well," Chowdhury said.

Dhaka plans to gradually reform its gas market to attract more foreign investment, he said. For example, the government is now open to private companies building terminals to import liquefied natural gas.

Bangladesh gets nearly 85% of its electricity from burning domestically produced gas, but has to rely more on imported coal and liquid fuels to meet bridge the gap.