Friday, November 14, 2008

Some probable scenarios about Bangladesh elections

No election scenario

1. Election is likely to be delayed by 10 days or few weeks. End week of January is the likely date. If it is pushed beyond January, AL will take to streets, defying emergency. Bloody battles are expected.

2. When election is pushed back, Fakhruddin will resign. His house in USA is being cleaned up. Other advisers are willing to continue but won't be able to stay. (The Government diary for 2009 is likely to keep names of Advisers intact!)

3. Some sort of national government involving reformists factions of the parties will be formed by the president, along with Kamal, B Chowdhury etc. Before leaving, Fakhruddin will formalise National Security Council. If FA can't make it, then new national government will give birth to NSC hurriedly. At that point President will be asked to leave and situations will be made calling Moeen to take over as President. He will decline initially, however, under pressure, he will oblige for 'national interest'.

3. Under this scenario, the election will be postponed for an indefinite period. Both Hasina and Khaleda will be asked to rally behind, if they disagree, they will be put back to sub-jail again, alongwith those politicians received bails so far.

4. Jamaat will come under pressure at this point and a war crime commission will be formed to try collaborators. The national government would want to put an end to this issue, so the trial would continue for few more years before Jamaat's leadership are put behind bars permanently.

Election scenario

1. BNP is likely to participate, without Khaleda. She is not likely to participate as she will have to submit educational certificate under revised RPO which will show her birth date different from what she has been observing.Also, once she submits it, EC will try to malign her by investigating if certificate is genuine or not. This will lead to more confusion and chaos. She wants to avoid this and if that happens we will hear a different story from her that she would like to become Bangladesh's Sonia.

2. Hasina-Khaleda dialogue is meant to prevent Moeen from becoming the president. Both parties are also considering power sharing.


Election or no election, chaos is confirmed. Welcome to chaotic 2009 and prepare for a longer period of 'unelected governance'.

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