D. Syeda Sharmin Absar, a development policy analyst, has done some forward-thinking in the following two-part articles:
Ist part
In 2nd part she asks: What can Sheikh Hasina do given the fact that the PM with all her power is constrained by the limitations of geopolitics, terrorist organisations, aid dependent economy in times of recession and most importantly, a hostile bureaucracy?
Showing posts with label Hasina. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hasina. Show all posts
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Indian views on Hasina's BDR Challenges
Times of India thinks Bangladesh's situation is serious and speculates about involvement of Hizb-ut-Tahrir in the whole incident. It is also hinting at some DGFI-ISI connection in BDR massacre. According to the paper, the immediate dangers for Hasina are several:
First, there will certainly be short-term instability in her fledgling government specially if a concerted effort is made to weed out the rebellious elements.
Second, there is a total collapse in the command structure in BDR, specially after it's clear that at least 12 senior commanders (including the director-general and his deputy) were killed and their bodies dumped in the sewer. But more positively, the army, under Gen Moeen Ahmed, weighed in on the side of the Hasina government.
In the past few years, the army has taken great pains to cleanse its cadres of BNP loyalists, though, after Thursday, some suspect that a few of those remain. In July 2008, an internal rebellion was crushed and subsequently, many senior officers were "purged". Brigadier Amin of the DGFI was removed. General Masood, the second-in-command in the army, was also removed. Masood is a brother-in-law of Khaleda Zia's brother, and officials are now checking to see whether some of this family connection could have been used.
Indian security agencies are looking at a Pakistan ISI angle, because of a deep closeness with the BDR and DGFI. In many ways, this was a massive intelligence failure. But given the DGFI-ISI ties, could there be a different explanation, sources here wondered.
Here is the full story.
First, there will certainly be short-term instability in her fledgling government specially if a concerted effort is made to weed out the rebellious elements.
Second, there is a total collapse in the command structure in BDR, specially after it's clear that at least 12 senior commanders (including the director-general and his deputy) were killed and their bodies dumped in the sewer. But more positively, the army, under Gen Moeen Ahmed, weighed in on the side of the Hasina government.
In the past few years, the army has taken great pains to cleanse its cadres of BNP loyalists, though, after Thursday, some suspect that a few of those remain. In July 2008, an internal rebellion was crushed and subsequently, many senior officers were "purged". Brigadier Amin of the DGFI was removed. General Masood, the second-in-command in the army, was also removed. Masood is a brother-in-law of Khaleda Zia's brother, and officials are now checking to see whether some of this family connection could have been used.
Indian security agencies are looking at a Pakistan ISI angle, because of a deep closeness with the BDR and DGFI. In many ways, this was a massive intelligence failure. But given the DGFI-ISI ties, could there be a different explanation, sources here wondered.
Here is the full story.
Thursday, January 1, 2009
Oxford Analytica on Bangladesh Elections
British think-tank the Oxford Analytica has offered the following observations on Bangladesh's elections:
National circumspection. Despite the peaceful election, clear AL victory and likely weakness of any challenge to the result, many Bangladeshis remain hesitant about the prospects of democracy:
Over-confidence. Many worry that the AL's mandate will result in over-confidence. The AL might impose its secular agenda too aggressively on what many see as a piously Muslim country, or pursue its enemies on corruption charges.
Bangladesh's first-past-the-post system means the scale of the AL's majority does not represent the extent of its support, adding to uncertainty; while it has a clear mandate, the BNP still polled only 30% of the popular vote.
Backlash. Many within the AL are concerned that defeat for the Islamist-leaning BNP and its allies will result in an attempt to destabilise secular politics through a campaign of violence. The army's central role in the administration during the last 23 months -- as well as international pressure -- has kept a lid on political violence, and the army's withdrawal now could see law and order deteriorate.
However, Sheikh Hasina has stressed the need for the AL to work with the defeated opposition. The AL has been elected on a moderate, realistic platform to develop the country and reduce poverty by 2021 that attracted popular support. While there are questions about Hasina and Khaleda Zia's continuing role in national politics and corruption remains an issue, most Bangladeshis see the high price of essential commodities as the priority, which the AL has promised to tackle.
CONCLUSION: The AL has scored a major victory in this week's return to democracy, leaving the BNP to decide how to respond. A consensual approach would lift Bangladesh's political prospects, but there is a risk that the AL might overreach itself on the perceived strength of its mandate.
National circumspection. Despite the peaceful election, clear AL victory and likely weakness of any challenge to the result, many Bangladeshis remain hesitant about the prospects of democracy:
Over-confidence. Many worry that the AL's mandate will result in over-confidence. The AL might impose its secular agenda too aggressively on what many see as a piously Muslim country, or pursue its enemies on corruption charges.
Bangladesh's first-past-the-post system means the scale of the AL's majority does not represent the extent of its support, adding to uncertainty; while it has a clear mandate, the BNP still polled only 30% of the popular vote.
Backlash. Many within the AL are concerned that defeat for the Islamist-leaning BNP and its allies will result in an attempt to destabilise secular politics through a campaign of violence. The army's central role in the administration during the last 23 months -- as well as international pressure -- has kept a lid on political violence, and the army's withdrawal now could see law and order deteriorate.
However, Sheikh Hasina has stressed the need for the AL to work with the defeated opposition. The AL has been elected on a moderate, realistic platform to develop the country and reduce poverty by 2021 that attracted popular support. While there are questions about Hasina and Khaleda Zia's continuing role in national politics and corruption remains an issue, most Bangladeshis see the high price of essential commodities as the priority, which the AL has promised to tackle.
CONCLUSION: The AL has scored a major victory in this week's return to democracy, leaving the BNP to decide how to respond. A consensual approach would lift Bangladesh's political prospects, but there is a risk that the AL might overreach itself on the perceived strength of its mandate.
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Hasina's Victory Speech
Sheikh Hasina today addressed a large crowd and now taking Q&A from media. The salient features of her speech are as follows:
1. Poverty is the number one enemy of Bangladesh and we should work together to eliminate this menace.
2. This victory is of good governance against mal-governance and a victory of secular beliefs against communal concepts.
3. We want to start a new culture in politics.
4. All should now maintain restrained behavior.
5. Controlling price of essentials is number one task.
6. We want to implement the Vision 2021.
7. Begum Zia should accept the results as this has been the most fairest elections of all.
8. We do not believe in revenge.
9. We want continuation of the democratic process.
10. She thanked all, including those who voted against her party.
1. Poverty is the number one enemy of Bangladesh and we should work together to eliminate this menace.
2. This victory is of good governance against mal-governance and a victory of secular beliefs against communal concepts.
3. We want to start a new culture in politics.
4. All should now maintain restrained behavior.
5. Controlling price of essentials is number one task.
6. We want to implement the Vision 2021.
7. Begum Zia should accept the results as this has been the most fairest elections of all.
8. We do not believe in revenge.
9. We want continuation of the democratic process.
10. She thanked all, including those who voted against her party.
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
What does a Hasina win mean for Bangladesh?
Read Reuter's analysis:
DHAKA (Reuters) - An alliance under Bangladesh's former prime minister Sheikh Hasina won a big parliamentary majority in the country's first polls in seven years, unofficial results showed on Tuesday.
Following are answers to questions about what her apparent victory means for the South Asian nation of more than 140 million people:
WILL POLITICAL TURBULENCE END?
Bangladesh's past experiences with democracy have been mixed at best, with losing parties refusing to accept results and resorting at times to violent street protests and strikes. Military figures, in and out of uniform, have sporadically stepped in, justifying their actions on the need for order.
Although main opposition figure Begum Khaleda Zia said during the campaign the time for confrontational politics had passed, on election day she suggested she would win any fair election, and her Bangladesh Nationalist Party complained about cheating once the polls closed. Those comments could set the stage for post-election turmoil, although the outgoing army-backed interim government said it was ready to crush any outbreaks of violence.
Separately, political analysts have started suggesting that Hasina reach out to her old rival and give her a share of power.
WHAT ABOUT VIOLENT ISLAMISTS?
Bangladesh's neighbours worry an increasingly violent Islamist militant minority could provide support and shelter for radicals in their own countries.
Hasina has been a consistent opponent of such groups, and said during her campaign she would act aggressively against them.
Her overwhelming victory and the fact some analysts attribute it partly to Khaleda's alliance with an Islamist party suggest Hasina can follow through on her campaign pledges without concern for negative political consequences, and also resist pressure to make Bangladesh less tolerant and secular.
Reinforcing that view was a poor performance by Islamist candidates, according to the unofficial results.
CAN HASINA MAKE PROGRESS ON THE ECONOMY?
Nearly 40 percent of Bangladesh's population live on less than $1 a day. About a third of the country floods annually during the monsoon season, hampering economic development.
Hasina's platform and past policies point to support for gradually liberalising the economy to boost growth.
Her huge majority may also give her the clout to develop significant coal and natural gas resources and much-needed power generating infrastructure, which might require the expertise of foreign firms. But if she cannot prevent the street protests and strikes seen in the past, many investors will stay away.
Endemic corruption that distorts Bangladesh's economic playing field has been another turn-off for investors. The outgoing government detained Hasina for a year on graft charges, which she denied. She pledged in her campaign to fight corruption this time. A desire not to give the military an excuse to intervene or impose a government that would take her back to court could be a strong incentive for her to follow through.
WHAT ABOUT THE MILITARY?
What role the powerful army will assume when an elected government takes charge is a common concern.
Analysts and diplomats say the army is likely to at least hover behind the scenes for a time to see if the new government can get a grip on corruption and avoid violence.
If so, it may leave things to Hasina and her ministers. One incentive it has for doing so is that a lack of involvement at home means maximum flexibility for the military to serve in various overseas U.N. peacekeeping missions.
Those missions generate compensatory payments to the country as well as pay the participating soldiers and officers salaries far above what they could earn at home.
If the new government fails badly, few doubt the military will be tempted to return with an overt role, which could mean the loss of much needed foreign aid from democratic countries.
DHAKA (Reuters) - An alliance under Bangladesh's former prime minister Sheikh Hasina won a big parliamentary majority in the country's first polls in seven years, unofficial results showed on Tuesday.
Following are answers to questions about what her apparent victory means for the South Asian nation of more than 140 million people:
WILL POLITICAL TURBULENCE END?
Bangladesh's past experiences with democracy have been mixed at best, with losing parties refusing to accept results and resorting at times to violent street protests and strikes. Military figures, in and out of uniform, have sporadically stepped in, justifying their actions on the need for order.
Although main opposition figure Begum Khaleda Zia said during the campaign the time for confrontational politics had passed, on election day she suggested she would win any fair election, and her Bangladesh Nationalist Party complained about cheating once the polls closed. Those comments could set the stage for post-election turmoil, although the outgoing army-backed interim government said it was ready to crush any outbreaks of violence.
Separately, political analysts have started suggesting that Hasina reach out to her old rival and give her a share of power.
WHAT ABOUT VIOLENT ISLAMISTS?
Bangladesh's neighbours worry an increasingly violent Islamist militant minority could provide support and shelter for radicals in their own countries.
Hasina has been a consistent opponent of such groups, and said during her campaign she would act aggressively against them.
Her overwhelming victory and the fact some analysts attribute it partly to Khaleda's alliance with an Islamist party suggest Hasina can follow through on her campaign pledges without concern for negative political consequences, and also resist pressure to make Bangladesh less tolerant and secular.
Reinforcing that view was a poor performance by Islamist candidates, according to the unofficial results.
CAN HASINA MAKE PROGRESS ON THE ECONOMY?
Nearly 40 percent of Bangladesh's population live on less than $1 a day. About a third of the country floods annually during the monsoon season, hampering economic development.
Hasina's platform and past policies point to support for gradually liberalising the economy to boost growth.
Her huge majority may also give her the clout to develop significant coal and natural gas resources and much-needed power generating infrastructure, which might require the expertise of foreign firms. But if she cannot prevent the street protests and strikes seen in the past, many investors will stay away.
Endemic corruption that distorts Bangladesh's economic playing field has been another turn-off for investors. The outgoing government detained Hasina for a year on graft charges, which she denied. She pledged in her campaign to fight corruption this time. A desire not to give the military an excuse to intervene or impose a government that would take her back to court could be a strong incentive for her to follow through.
WHAT ABOUT THE MILITARY?
What role the powerful army will assume when an elected government takes charge is a common concern.
Analysts and diplomats say the army is likely to at least hover behind the scenes for a time to see if the new government can get a grip on corruption and avoid violence.
If so, it may leave things to Hasina and her ministers. One incentive it has for doing so is that a lack of involvement at home means maximum flexibility for the military to serve in various overseas U.N. peacekeeping missions.
Those missions generate compensatory payments to the country as well as pay the participating soldiers and officers salaries far above what they could earn at home.
If the new government fails badly, few doubt the military will be tempted to return with an overt role, which could mean the loss of much needed foreign aid from democratic countries.
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