The following list of things that could derail Bangladesh’s upcoming election is prepared from a policy brief of the International Crisis Group.
1. Events such as an assassination attempt on a major political figure.
2. Rise of the Islamist militants to further their agenda.
3. All these could lead to a breakdown of security situation, paving the way for clamping down martial law.
4. Prolonged emergency rule (this is not going to happen) or a flawed election could produce party-led street violence, similar to run-up to the January 2007 polls. In this case the army could feel compelled to step in as it did on 11 January 2007.
It is obvious from the report that ICG is more inclined to prefer the military’s involvement in handling of things in Bangladesh. In a veiled threat, it cautioned: “The parties must not take the international community’s support for elections as an endorsement of their behavior but rather see it as a belated recognition of the dangers of military rule.”
What if the politicians do not behave properly? Well, ICG has the answer: “If they fail, the public and the international community will have little patience for a collective betrayal of their aspirations. Neither will the military.”
No wonder, the supporters of military are becoming more dangerous than the military itself.