Thursday, December 25, 2008

Making sense of election forecasting galore in Bangladesh

Flipping through several elections forecasting in Bangladesh’s newspapers one get this feeling: if wishes were horses! True, those conducted such surveys to predict the probable election outcome did it with a single motive to show that the party they support would definitely win! I bet they wouldn’t have published survey results if it had shown the opposite results.

Setting aside such reservation, one thing is certain that the business of forecasting has become very dynamic over the years. Believe it or, 139 principles are used to summarize knowledge about forecasting. Read all principles here.

There is an International Institute of Forecasters which provides useful information and knowledge on forecasting in a wide range of fields. There are also several free and commercial software that provide evidence-based forecasting. See a list here.Finally, this excellent site by Political Forecasting Special Interest Group is an excellent resource for scholars and practitioners interested in forecasting elections and other political events.

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