Sunday, February 8, 2009

Is Bangladesh PM delivering on election promises?

Anis Ahmad of Reuter's Dhaka produced this interesting Q&A:

HOW IS THE GOVERNMENT DOING AFTER ONE MONTH IN OFFICE?

The government has taken office, but parliament has effectively been crippled by an opposition boycott. Former prime minister Begum Khaleda Zia's Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) wants more front row parliamentary seats and a deputy speaker position. Speaker Abdul Hamid said the issues cannot be resolved until next session of parliament.

Law and order has deteriorated since emergency rule was lifted just before the elections. Police say around 10 people have been killed and dozens injured over the past month, mostly in clashes between supporters of Hasina's Awami League and Khaleda's BNP. A similar number were killed in a spate of criminal incidents, they said.

The decline has caused concern among analysts and diplomats who say unless it is tackled firmly, the country might slip back into chaos and unrest that has kept investors at bay.

"It is too early to lose hope, though I must say the signs are ominous," said professor Ataur Rahman, chairman of Bangladesh Political Science Association.

WHAT ARE THE MAIN CRITICISMS BEING LEVELLED AT THE GOVERNMENT? HAVE THEY HAD ANY SUCCESSES?

Hasina's government has been widely applauded for its initial success in bringing down food and other commodity prices, and reducing diesel and fertiliser prices to help farmers, the mainstay of the country's agrarian economy.

Hasina has also been praised for picking up a cabinet of mostly young ministers who have not been tainted by allegations of corruption.

But it has been criticised for failing to ensure law and order and for not being able to get parliament functioning effectively.

Hasina has asked for patience. "We are only four weeks in power. There is still a long way to go, so please don't put a scale on us yet," she told parliament.

WHAT HAS THE MARKET REACTION BEEN TO THE TRANSITION?

The markets are still nervous with fears of violence leading to investor apathy.

Prices at the country's two bourses rose in the days following Hasina's election win, but have been shaky since. Nervous investors often demonstrate outside the stock market building in Dhaka, calling for government intervention to bring stability. The central bank says economic growth in the current fiscal year to June 2009 is likely to miss its 6.5 percent target, only matching last year's 6.2 percent expansion, mainly due to the global financial crisis. Political upheaval in the country could push it down further, economists said.

WHAT ARE THE RISKS THE GOVERNMENT FACES?

All is not well within Hasina's Awami League as stalwarts who failed to get nominated or lost in the election jostle for position.

More troubles could be set off by the government giving members of parliament some control over rural development and allow them to monitor activities of rural council executives. Analysts says such feuding or discontent could ultimately weaken Hasina's party.

Street violence and political dissent could make it difficult for Hasina to deliver on her key election promises including food security, poverty reduction and boosting the economy.

WHAT ABOUT CORRUPTION?

Bangladesh is frequently ranked among the most corrupt nations on earth.

Hasina, who along with scores of other politicians including rival Khaleda Zia was jailed for alleged graft during the interim administration, has said her government will let the Anti-Corruption Commission work independently, but she urged the body not to harass politicians. Dozens of detained politicians took part in the Dec. 29 election after being released on bail, but some still have cases pending, including Hasina and Khaleda.

Their lawyers say the charges were filed against them mostly for "political reasons" and are likely to be quashed eventually.

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